How this analysis works

Primary Market Analysis is an independent risk read on crypto launches — launchpools, launchpads and airdrops. It answers one question honestly: will this dump, or is it a trap? — not “is this a nice project.”

The premise is simple. Someone putting in $100 rarely gets the picture a desk running $100k would build before touching a launch: the tokenomics, the unlock cliffs, the real sell pressure, the exchange’s listing history at honest price points. We do that work on every launch and hand you the conclusion. The analysis is skeptical by design — on any given day most verdicts are SKIP, because most launches are not worth your money.

What this is not. Not a signal group, not a “100x gem” finder, not hype. It never promises returns. It tells you where the risk is and lets you decide. Nothing here is financial advice.

The three tracks — and their physics

Every launch belongs to one of three types, and each type fails in a different way. We score each on its own physics rather than one generic checklist.

Launchpool — you stake, you earn, your body is safe

In a pool your principal is not at risk — you stake a coin you already hold and get it back. The risk is the reward itself: it’s immediately liquid, so farmers sell it the moment it lands. We weigh the reward as sell pressure against the token’s float and real demand. A big pool on a low-float token means a wall of sellers on day one.

Launchpad (IEO / IDO / presale) — your body is on the line

Here you actually buy the token, so your principal is at risk. We look at:

Sale price vs FDV — are you buying near a valuation that only makes sense years out?
Float at TGE and the unlock schedule — a tiny circulating float over a huge fully-diluted supply is an overhang waiting to drop.
Expected value per ticket — probability of allocation × realistic multiple, minus the downside.
Entry threshold vs retail capital — if the minimum ticket is larger than a sane retail size, we flag it.
The exchange’s track record at honest points — price at listing and +24h, never the all-time high.

Airdrop / Retrodrop — the reward comes later, if it comes

You farm now for tokens later. We estimate the expected value of farming (likely reward vs the gas and time it costs) and, critically, whether the campaign is actually live with a confirmed date. An aggregator marking something “active” is not proof it’s live — we check. We also weigh sybil risk and the real probability of a token ever shipping. Anything tagged “Possible” or “Probable” is speculation, not a confirmed campaign, and scored with low confidence.

How to read a verdict

Each launch gets a verdict, a score out of 100, and the reasoning behind it.

SAFE The risk/reward is defensible for its track. Still not a promise — just the least-bad category.

RISKY There’s a real edge or a real trap, and it depends on execution or timing. Enter only with eyes open.

SKIP Not worth your money as it stands — the sell pressure, valuation, unlocks or campaign integrity don’t add up.

Alongside the verdict, the full breakdown names the concrete facts: the one or two red flags that drive the call (e.g. “77% of supply to insiders,” “TGE postponed twice,” “listing ROI 0.26x”), any green flags, and a one-line honest reason. The verdict is what’s public on the track record; the facts behind each one are the part delivered to subscribers.

Signals we weigh

Low float + high FDV = overhang. A small circulating supply propping up a huge diluted valuation is future sell pressure, not a small cap.
Honest exit points only. We judge an exchange’s history by price at listing and +24h — never the all-time high, which no one actually caught.
Celebrity is a scrutiny trigger, not a green light. A founder with real lockups is one thing; a famous name bolted on as a cosmetic “advisor” or “ambassador” with no skin in the game is a red flag.
Access and geography are neutral. Whether a launch is open to your country never changes its score. We recommend by quality; if the best call happens to be on an exchange you can’t use, that’s information, not a downgrade.
Opacity is only flagged when it’s real. Missing tokenomics get called out only when no source anywhere has the data — not because one marketing page was thin.

The track record is public

Trust isn’t asserted, it’s earned in the open. Every verdict is logged the day it’s made and never edited. Once a token actually lists, the outcome is pulled from market data and the call is marked right or wrong — strictly: a match only counts when the coin’s identity matches the project, because a shared ticker isn’t proof. The hit-rate stays empty until real listings resolve, and then it fills by itself. See it live on the track record page.

How you get it

Daily on Telegram — one pass a day: the launches worth knowing about, each with its verdict and the facts behind it. This is the full product.
Public teasers — the sharpest single call of the day is posted openly, usually a trap worth warning about.
This site — the running, self-updating track record so you can check its honesty before you trust it.

The verdict is the free, public part. The “why” behind each call — the specific facts, the numbers, the reasoning — is what subscribers get.